Market Outlook
December 28, 2017
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open Positive tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
(0.3)
(99)
33,912
U.S. Indices witnessed choppy trading session as overall activity was light and
Nifty
(0.4)
(41)
10,491
volume were lower, as many traders remained away from their desks following
Mid Cap
(0.2)
(33)
17,674
Christmas and ahead of the holiday on New Year's Day. Mix economic data such as
Small Cap
(0.3)
(64)
19,048
pending home sales unexpectedly edged higher but consumer confidence pulled
Bankex
(0.6)
(181)
28,832
back more than expected kept trader cautious. The Dow rose 0.11% to finish at
24,774. The SPX added 0.1%, to end at 2,683. The NASDAQ advanced 0.1% to
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
close at 6,939.
Dow Jones
0.1
28
24,774
U.K. traders returned from the Christmas holidays in an upbeat mood on
Nasdaq
0.0
3
6,939
Wednesday, sending the benchmark stock index higher and scoring a record close
FTSE
0.4
28
7,621
largely supported by Miners Company. The FTSE 100 rose 0.4% to close at 7,621.
Nikkei
0.2
36
22,948
On domestic front, indices traded in narrow range but in second half of the session
Hang Seng
0.6
177
29,775
NIFTY drifted lower. Primary reason for sudden down trend in market could be
Shanghai Com
0.3
10
3,286
Government scheduled meeting for borrowing. Trader opted for coutios view as
higher borrowing would increase fiscal deficit. A few counters witnessed volatile
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
movements with traders looking to square off near month derivatives contracts
ahead of expiry on Thursday. The Sensex, which hit a fresh record, rising to
Advances
1,218
710
34,137.97, ended down 0.29% at 33,912. The Nifty50 ended at 10,491, losing
Declines
1,560
1,080
0.39%.
Unchanged
191
56
News Analysis
Volumes (` Cr)
Sun Pharma Announces US FDA Acceptance of NDA for OTX-101
BSE
7,078
Detailed analysis on Pg2
NSE
32,213
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
FII
(1,136)
(7,833)
49,799
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
*MFs
1,012
6,114
116,352
Top Picks
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Rcom
29
34.7
Blue Star
Capital Goods Accumulate
801
867
8.2
Jpassociat
21
8.1
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Buy
593
712
20.1
Sparc
500
7.8
Asian Granito
Other
Accumulate
536
582
8.5
Prestige
322
7.1
Navkar Corporation
Other
Buy
190
265
39.5
Sunpharma
578
6.9
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
362
436
20.5
More Top Picks on Pg4
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Key Upcoming Events
Intellect
166
(5.0)
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
Reading
Expectations
Deltacorp
308
(3.9)
Dec28
US
Initial Jobless claims
245.00
240.00
Il&Fstrans
82
(3.9)
Dec31
Germany PMI Manufacturing
63.30
63.30
Religare
69
(3.7)
Jan02
China
PMI Manufacturing
51.80
51.60
Welspunind
73
(3.5)
Jan02
UK
PMI Manufacturing
58.20
57.90
As on December 27 2017
Jan03
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
228.00
188.00
More Events on Pg7
Market Outlook
December 28, 2017
News Analysis
Sun Pharma Announces US FDA Acceptance of NDA for OTX-101
Sun Pharma announced that the US FDA has accepted a new drug application
(NDA) filed by its wholly owned subsidiary, for OTX-101 (cyclosporine A,
ophthalmic solution) 0.09%, a novel nanomicellar formulation of cyclosporine A
0.09% in a clear, preservative-free aqueous solution. OTX-101 is now under
review for approval by the US FDA, marking an important developmental
milestone for Sun Pharma’s Dry Eye candidate.
Dry Eye disease is a complex, chronic condition that affects patient's quality of life,
often significantly. OTX-101, will allow them to participate in the rapidly growing
underserved and dynamic Dry Eye market. When approved, it will be a milestone
for millions of Dry Eye patients across the globe that are yet to find relief for their
condition. The company is looking forward to work closely with US FDA over the
coming months and launch the drug in the USA as soon as possible. According to
reports, the Dry Eye drug market in US is close to $1.8bn & expected to be
US$5bn by 2020.
This is a positive development for Sun Pharmaceuticals. The product has the
potential to contribute significantly over a long period, given the market size and
growth potential; however, there is threat from the potential earlier than expected
generics entry in Restasis. Notably, recently generics have had positive outcome in
the patent litigation, which has opened up the possibility of this event happening
over the next few quarters much before the patent expiry. Thus, we believe that the
market potential depends upon the generic competition in the molecule upon the
launch, which is expected by FY2019. Currently we are not factoring in aggressive
numbers on back of the same and will factor in once the product is launched in
the market. A rough estimate suggests that the product can add around US$50mn
on sales front annually, on a very conservative way. Currently we recommend
accumulate with a price target of `630.
Economic and Political News
For cheaper funds, large corporate prefer bonds; move away from banks
Govt cuts interest rate on various small savings schemes by 20 bps
Govt to borrow `50,000cr more this financial year
Corporate News
Quess Corp acquired Master staffing solutions and 60 percent stake in
Golden Star Facilities and Service.
Riddhi Siddhi board approved proposal to de-list shares of the company;
promoters set the offer floor price at `510 apiece.
SBI board approved raising up to`8,000cr through Tier-1 bonds by March
Market Outlook
December 28, 2017
Top Picks HHHHH
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Strong growth in domestic business due to its leade`hip
in acute therapeutic segment. Alkem expects to launch
Alkem Laboratories
25,857
2,163
2,341
8.3
more products in USA, which bodes for its international
business.
We expect the company would report strong profitability
Asian Granito
1,613
536
582
8.5
owing to better product mix, higher B2C sales and
amalgamation synergy.
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the
Blue Star
7,683
801
867
8.2
market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to
improve once operating environment turns around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
18,594
593
712
20.1
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Loan growth is likely to pick up after a sluggish FY17.
Lower credit cost will help in strong bottom-line growth.
Karur Vysya Bank
8,811
122
180
47.4
Increasing share of CASA will help in NIM
improvement.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising B2C
KEI Industries
2,836
362
436
20.5
sales and higher exports to boost the revenues and
profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex requirement
Music Broadcast
2,197
385
434
12.7
and 15 year long radio broadcast licensing.
Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage
Navkar Corporation
2,858
190
265
39.5
at ICD as well CFS augur well for the company
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
Siyaram Silk Mills
3,554
758
813
7.2
growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an
inexpensive valuation.
Market leadership in Hindi news genre and no.
2
viewership ranking in English news genre, exit from the
TV Today Network
2,627
440
500
13.5
radio business, and anticipated growth in ad spends by
corporate to benefit the stock.
After GST, the company is expected to see higher
volumes along with improving product mix. The Gujarat
Maruti Suzuki
2,91,421
9,647
10,619
10.1
plant will also enable higher operating leverage which
will be margin accretive.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next two
GIC Housing
2,500
464
655
41.1
year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
We expect CPIL to report net Revenue/PAT CAGR of
~17%/16% over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
7,536
339
400
17.9
growth in plywood & lamination business, forayed into
Century Plyboards India
MDF & Particle boards on back of strong brand &
distribution network.
We expect sales/PAT to grow at 13.5%/20% over next
LT Foods
2,407
90
96
6.4
two years on the back of strong distribution network &
addition of new products in portfolio.
We expect sales/PAT to grow at 13%/16% over next two
years on the back of strong healthy demand in writing
Ruchira Papers
438
196
244
24.8
& printing paper and Kraft paper. Further, China had
banned making paper from waste pulp which would
benefit Indian paper companies.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
December 28, 2017
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Dec 28, 2017
7:00 PMUS
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Dec 23
245.00
240.00
Dec 31, 2017
2:25 PMGermany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Dec F
63.30
63.30
Jan 02, 2018
6:30 AMChina
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Dec
51.80
51.60
3:00 PMUK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Dec
58.20
57.90
Jan 03, 2018
7:00 PMUS
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Dec
228.00
188.00
Jan 04, 2018
2:25 PMGermany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Dec
(18.00)
(13.00)
Jan 05, 2018
2:25 PMGermany
PMI Services
Value
Dec F
55.80
55.80
7:00 PMUS
Unnemployment rate
%
Dec
4.10
4.10
Jan 08, 2018
3:30 PMEuro Zone
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Dec F
0.50
Jan 10, 2018
3:00 PMUK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Nov
3.60
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Dec
19.60
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Dec
30.60
Jan 11, 2018
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Dec
1.40
Jan 12, 2018
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Dec
12.30
7:00 PMUS
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Dec
0.40
Jan 15, 2018
12:00 PMIndia
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Dec
3.93
Jan 16, 2018
3:30 PMEuro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Dec F
1.50
Jan 17, 2018
3:00 PMUK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Dec
3.10
7:45 PMUS
Industrial Production
%
Dec
0.20
Jan 18, 2018
7:00 PMUS
Housing Starts
Thousands
Dec
1,297.00
7:00 PMUS
Building permits
Thousands
Dec
1,303.00
Jan 24, 2018
8:30 PMUS
Existing home sales
Million
Dec
5.81
3:00 PMUK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Dec
5.90
Jan 25, 2018
8:30 PMUS
New home sales
Thousands
Dec
733.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
December 28, 2017
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
5.0
4.5
9.1
4.4
4.1
9.0
8.0
7.9
4.0
3.5
7.6
7.5
3.2
8.0
7.3
7.2
2.9
7.0
3.0
2.4
7.0
6.3
2.2
6.1
6.1
5.7
2.0
6.0
1.2
1.0
5.0
1.0
4.0
-
3.0
(1.0)
(0.3)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
4.9
52.0
5.0
3.9
50.0
4.0
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.0
48.0
3.0
2.4
2.2
46.0
2.0
1.5
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
60.0
6.50
50.0
6.00
40.0
5.50
30.0
5.00
20.0
4.50
10.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(10.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
December 28, 2017
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
2.0
0.7
1.5
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
December 28, 2017
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
76,073
2.6
0.6
32.0
Russia
Micex
2,106
(1.9)
1.2
(4.5)
India
Nifty
10,491
1.0
6.3
31.4
China
Shanghai Composite
3,276
(1.3)
(1.9)
6.0
South Africa
Top 40
51,987
(3.7)
6.5
20.1
Mexico
Mexbol
48,653
1.1
(3.3)
6.8
Indonesia
LQ45
1,063
4.5
8.8
19.4
Malaysia
KLCI
1,772
2.9
0.1
8.2
Thailand
SET 50
1,137
4.3
6.2
19.9
USA
Dow Jones
24,774
5.2
11.2
24.9
UK
FTSE
7,621
2.7
4.6
7.0
Japan
Nikkei
22,911
1.8
12.3
17.8
Germany
DAX
13,070
0.5
3.8
14.1
France
CAC
5,369
(0.2)
1.9
9.6
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research p68in4
Stock Watch
December 28, 2017
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY18E FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Sell
269
209
5,226
1,873
2,099
15.0
15.0
9.5
10.5
28.3
25.6
4.3
3.9
15.8
16.0
2.7
2.4
United Phosphorus
Accumulate
740
820
37,629
18,922
21,949
18.0
18.5
36.2
45.6
20.5
16.2
4.3
3.5
22.7
23.8
2.1
1.8
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Accumulate
119
127
34,701
23,339
27,240
10.1
10.8
4.7
6.2
25.5
19.1
5.1
4.5
20.0
23.6
1.4
1.2
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
3,335
-
96,517
23,936
27,955
19.5
20.1
142.7
167.3
23.4
19.9
5.1
4.6
21.8
22.8
3.6
3.0
Bharat Forge
Buy
719
875
33,487
7,637
8,755
21.7
23.2
36.1
47.3
19.9
15.2
3.6
3.1
18.5
20.8
4.2
3.6
Eicher Motors
Neutral
30,191
-
82,229
19,043
22,837
19.5
19.9
835.4
1,019.0
36.1
29.6
13.5
10.4
40.9
37.8
4.2
3.4
Gabriel India
Neutral
195
-
2,805
1,782
2,033
9.7
10.2
7.1
8.9
27.5
22.1
5.6
4.7
21.0
22.2
1.5
1.3
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
3,779
4,129
75,476
32,239
36,878
16.0
15.6
184.4
206.5
20.5
18.3
6.4
5.6
31.3
30.7
2.1
1.8
Jamna Auto Industries Neutral
81
-
3,244
1,441
1,662
14.4
14.8
13.9
17.6
5.9
4.6
1.6
1.3
30.0
31.0
2.2
1.9
Mahindra and Mahindra Neutral
747
-
92,867
46,971
53,816
13.6
14.0
67.7
79.8
11.0
9.4
1.6
1.4
15.0
15.9
1.9
1.6
Maruti
Accumulate
9,647
10,619
291,421
79,470
95,208
15.9
17.2
281.7
363.8
34.2
26.5
7.4
6.0
21.7
22.8
3.3
2.7
Minda Industries
Neutral
1,293
-
11,173
4,328
5,084
11.0
11.9
27.3
36.4
47.5
35.5
10.1
7.9
23.1
25.6
2.7
2.3
Motherson Sumi
Neutral
368
-
77,544
55,937
64,445
10.8
11.4
16.9
21.1
21.8
17.5
4.9
5.0
25.2
25.4
1.4
1.2
Tata Motors
Neutral
423
-
121,990
303,167
343,649
11.8
13.8
33.1
54.7
12.8
7.7
2.1
1.7
16.9
23.0
0.5
0.4
TVS Motor
Neutral
769
-
36,534
13,992
16,216
9.0
9.4
17.1
20.3
45.1
37.9
12.0
9.3
29.7
27.7
2.5
2.1
Amara Raja Batteries
Neutral
834
-
14,252
6,140
7,122
14.3
15.6
29.3
39.0
28.5
21.4
4.9
4.1
17.1
19.0
2.3
2.0
Exide Industries
Neutral
219
-
18,573
8,689
9,854
15.1
15.2
9.7
11.0
22.6
19.9
4.0
3.5
15.7
16.1
1.9
1.6
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
269
-
15,362
15,739
17,326
13.3
14.6
20.4
26.7
13.2
10.1
1.6
1.4
20.4
26.7
1.2
1.1
Ceat
Neutral
1,949
-
7,885
6,661
7,717
11.1
14.2
116.2
178.2
16.8
10.9
2.9
2.4
15.2
21.3
1.3
1.1
JK Tyres
Neutral
148
-
3,355
8,318
9,239
16.2
16.4
21.0
27.5
7.1
5.4
1.4
1.1
19.1
20.4
0.9
0.7
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
2,016
-
2,504
788
889
16.4
16.5
71.6
81.0
28.2
24.9
8.1
7.5
29.6
31.0
2.8
2.5
Subros
Neutral
309
-
1,854
1,855
2,135
11.6
11.8
10.3
14.7
30.2
21.1
4.6
3.9
15.8
19.1
1.2
1.0
Capital Goods
BEML
Neutral
1,591
-
6,624
4,286
5,194
7.1
8.2
42.9
58.1
37.1
27.4
3.0
2.8
7.6
8.7
1.6
1.3
Bharat Electronics
Neutral
184
-
45,270
10,258
12,470
19.6
19.5
7.3
8.6
25.2
21.4
0.5
0.4
20.4
21.9
3.9
3.2
Voltas
Neutral
668
-
22,100
6,778
8,004
9.6
11.0
17.1
22.4
39.1
29.8
9.3
8.2
17.7
19.8
3.0
2.5
BHEL
Neutral
93
-
33,997
33,200
39,167
6.8
9.5
6.2
11.2
14.9
8.3
0.7
0.7
4.6
8.0
0.6
0.5
Blue Star
Accumulate
801
867
7,683
5,220
6,207
6.3
6.6
16.8
22.3
47.7
36.0
9.5
8.4
19.9
23.3
1.4
1.2
CG Power and Industrial
Neutral
90
-
5,669
6,555
7,292
7.5
7.5
-
0.8
9,045.0
113.1
1.4
1.4
0.1
1.2
1.0
0.9
Solutions
Greaves Cotton
Neutral
135
-
3,308
1,778
1,993
14.7
15.1
8.1
9.1
16.7
14.9
3.8
3.5
21.8
23.6
1.6
1.4
Stock Watch
December 28, 2017
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY18E FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
Capital Goods
KEC International
Neutral
364
-
9,361
9,779
11,113
9.4
9.8
14.2
18.2
25.6
20.0
4.9
4.0
21.1
22.1
1.2
1.1
KEI Industries
Buy
361
436
2,831
3,001
3,391
10.0
10.0
13.0
16.1
27.8
22.4
5.1
4.2
18.2
18.7
1.1
1.0
Thermax
Neutral
1,209
-
14,407
4,125
4,747
10.3
10.8
26.7
31.5
45.3
38.4
5.1
4.6
11.2
12.0
3.2
2.8
VATech Wabag
Accumulate
619
681
3,381
3,867
4,126
9.6
10.0
34.9
39.8
17.7
15.5
2.9
2.5
17.7
17.5
0.9
0.8
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,731
-
32,511
12,255
13,350
13.5
14.3
58.0
66.2
29.9
26.2
3.5
3.3
11.5
12.2
2.6
2.4
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
271
-
53,761
10,250
11,450
17.5
19.0
7.2
8.3
37.6
32.6
2.7
2.5
7.0
7.8
5.0
4.4
India Cements
Neutral
182
-
5,601
6,135
6,750
14.8
15.2
8.5
11.5
21.4
15.8
1.1
1.0
4.8
6.2
1.3
1.1
JK Cement
Neutral
1,095
-
7,655
4,150
4,775
19.2
20.0
49.0
63.5
22.4
17.2
3.5
3.0
17.0
18.5
2.3
1.9
J K Lakshmi Cement
Neutral
435
-
5,122
3,422
3,757
15.5
17.0
13.5
23.2
32.2
18.8
3.4
2.9
10.8
15.5
1.9
1.7
Orient Cement
Neutral
168
-
3,444
2,215
3,233
16.8
17.0
5.9
6.9
28.5
24.4
2.2
2.0
10.8
10.1
2.6
1.7
Prism Cement
Accumulate
115
131
5,768
5,155
5,616
7.0
7.0
2.0
3.0
57.3
38.2
5.3
4.6
10.0
13.8
1.4
1.3
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
4,273
-
117,316
28,250
35,150
20.2
23.5
77.5
122.2
55.1
35.0
4.6
4.2
9.6
14.8
4.6
3.7
Construction
KNR Constructions
Neutral
327
-
4,591
1,846
2,203
14.5
14.5
12.1
13.7
27.0
23.9
1.5
1.3
17.5
16.7
2.5
2.1
Larsen & Toubro
Neutral
1,259
-
176,334
95,787
109,476
10.2
11.6
44.5
50.8
28.3
24.8
3.5
3.3
12.9
13.1
2.4
2.1
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
137
-
6,604
739
842
61.6
62.7
5.1
6.2
26.8
22.2
3.3
3.3
12.7
14.9
8.4
7.2
PNC Infratech
Neutral
211
-
5,419
2,040
2,935
13.0
13.0
6.4
9.0
33.0
23.5
0.9
0.8
9.7
12.2
2.7
1.9
Simplex Infra
Neutral
575
-
2,846
6,012
6,619
11.6
11.7
21.1
31.0
27.3
18.6
1.9
1.7
6.5
8.6
1.0
0.9
Sadbhav Engineering
Neutral
416
-
7,130
3,823
4,426
10.7
10.8
10.3
11.8
40.4
35.2
4.8
4.2
10.1
10.5
2.2
1.9
NBCC
Neutral
250
-
22,460
9,099
12,706
6.4
6.4
7.3
9.6
34.3
26.1
1.5
1.2
27.5
30.5
2.3
1.7
MEP Infra
Neutral
96
-
1,565
2,403
2,910
18.3
16.8
2.4
6.1
40.9
15.8
15.5
10.5
35.2
55.8
1.8
1.5
SIPL
Neutral
147
-
5,172
2,060
2,390
46.8
47.7
(5.8)
(3.1)
5.5
6.3
(14.2)
(2.3)
7.3
6.7
Engineers India
Neutral
201
-
13,515
1,795
2,611
21.1
22.4
5.9
8.1
34.0
24.8
2.4
2.4
12.9
16.1
5.9
3.9
Financials
Axis Bank
Neutral
555
-
142,180
32,558
35,843
3.5
3.2
27.8
41.0
19.9
13.5
2.2
1.9
11.4
14.9
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
166
-
38,238
22,533
26,079
2.4
2.4
12.0
20.9
13.8
7.9
0.9
0.9
6.6
11.0
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
368
-
21,989
17,925
20,235
2.0
2.1
18.5
36.5
19.9
10.1
0.8
0.7
3.4
6.2
-
-
Can Fin Homes
Neutral
489
-
6,515
586
741
3.5
3.5
107.8
141.0
4.5
3.5
1.0
0.8
24.1
25.6
-
-
Cholamandalam Inv. &
Neutral
1,286
-
20,107
2,826
3,307
6.3
6.3
53.7
64.6
24.0
19.9
4.1
3.5
18.3
18.9
-
-
Fin. Co.
Dewan Housing Finance Buy
593
712
18,606
2,676
3,383
2.4
2.7
37.4
49.7
15.9
11.9
2.1
1.8
13.8
16.2
-
-
Equitas Holdings
Buy
147
235
5,006
1,125
1,380
9.6
9.8
1.5
6.0
98.2
24.6
2.2
2.1
2.4
8.2
-
-
Stock Watch
December 28, 2017
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY18E FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
Financials
Federal Bank
Accumulate
109
125
21,491
4,896
5,930
2.8
3.1
5.4
7.6
20.4
14.4
1.7
1.6
8.5
11.0
-
-
GIC Housing
Buy
464
655
2,500
376
477
3.6
3.7
33.0
40.0
14.1
11.6
2.5
2.1
20.0
23.0
-
-
HDFC Bank
Neutral
1,858
-
481,206
55,236
63,253
4.5
4.4
68.9
82.4
27.0
22.5
4.7
3.9
18.7
18.5
-
-
ICICI Bank
Neutral
313
-
200,776
42,361
51,378
3.6
3.9
18.4
25.7
17.0
12.2
1.9
1.8
11.3
15.0
-
-
Karur Vysya Bank
Buy
122
180
8,811
3,289
3,630
3.7
3.9
10.8
14.1
11.3
8.7
1.4
1.2
12.5
14.7
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Accumulate
568
630
28,677
4,895
6,332
3.4
3.7
50.7
66.8
11.2
8.5
2.2
1.9
21.7
23.8
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
174
-
42,181
23,708
25,758
2.1
2.1
5.9
16.4
29.6
10.6
0.9
0.8
3.0
8.3
-
-
RBL Bank
Neutral
514
-
21,426
2,309
2,888
2.6
2.5
16.4
19.1
31.4
27.0
3.9
3.5
13.3
13.8
-
-
Repco Home Finance
Buy
686
825
4,290
496
597
4.4
4.2
38.5
48.7
17.8
14.1
3.2
2.7
19.6
20.6
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
31
-
5,679
3,195
3,567
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.8
10.4
8.2
1.0
0.9
10.5
11.9
-
-
St Bk of India
Neutral
314
-
271,176
105,827
121,056
2.4
2.5
16.1
25.6
19.5
12.3
1.5
1.4
6.6
9.9
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
148
-
12,691
14,650
16,225
2.3
2.3
23.1
32.5
6.4
4.6
0.5
0.4
7.1
9.2
-
-
Yes Bank
Neutral
315
-
72,456
11,088
13,138
3.0
2.9
84.0
99.3
3.8
3.2
0.6
0.5
16.3
16.8
-
-
FMCG
Akzo Nobel India
Neutral
1,798
-
8,623
3,164
3,607
13.8
13.7
58.6
67.9
30.7
26.5
7.5
6.6
24.5
25.1
2.6
2.2
Asian Paints
Neutral
1,148
-
110,159
17,603
20,615
18.6
18.6
2,128.9
2,543.3
0.5
0.5
11.4
9.6
28.0
28.9
6.1
5.1
Britannia
Neutral
4,731
-
56,794
9,690
11,278
14.8
15.4
84.0
101.0
56.3
46.8
20.5
16.3
40.6
39.0
5.8
5.0
Colgate
Neutral
1,078
-
29,330
4,420
5,074
24.9
25.3
28.6
32.8
37.7
32.9
14.9
12.0
43.8
40.5
6.4
5.5
Dabur India
Neutral
352
-
61,926
8,346
9,344
19.6
19.9
7.8
9.0
45.1
39.1
9.1
8.2
25.2
24.8
7.0
6.2
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,469
-
27,206
5,072
5,760
18.2
18.4
176.3
199.2
36.7
32.5
7.8
7.0
21.2
21.7
4.7
4.1
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
984
-
67,033
10,171
11,682
20.8
21.5
21.7
27.1
45.3
36.3
10.2
8.8
22.3
23.4
6.7
5.8
HUL
Neutral
1,354
-
293,168
37,077
41,508
20.3
21.8
5,189.9
6,318.5
0.3
0.2
41.3
35.3
74.8
82.0
7.8
6.9
ITC
Neutral
262
-
319,793
44,588
49,853
37.0
37.3
9.6
11.0
27.3
23.9
6.7
6.4
25.1
27.3
6.7
5.9
Marico
Neutral
318
-
41,034
6,788
7,766
18.5
19.2
7.1
8.5
44.8
37.4
15.7
13.4
36.9
38.0
5.9
5.1
Nestle*
Neutral
7,741
-
74,638
10,083
11,182
20.0
20.9
119.7
141.3
64.7
54.8
227.9
208.3
36.7
39.8
7.1
6.3
Tata Global
Neutral
306
-
19,284
7,121
7,641
11.9
12.3
6.9
8.0
44.3
38.2
3.0
2.8
6.8
7.2
2.5
2.3
Procter & Gamble
Neutral
9,375
-
30,432
3,034
3,579
27.1
27.7
167.7
198.8
55.9
47.2
15.0
12.9
28.8
29.5
9.5
7.9
Hygiene
IT
HCL Tech^
Accumulate
884
1,014
126,160
50,009
54,608
22.1
22.1
62.8
67.6
14.1
13.1
3.2
2.7
22.4
20.6
2.2
1.9
Infosys
Accumulate
1,034
1,120
237,521
70,333
75,960
26.0
26.0
61.7
65.9
16.8
15.7
3.2
2.9
18.9
18.7
2.8
2.5
TCS
Reduce
2,621
2,442
501,744
123,384
134,488
26.1
26.1
133.2
143.7
19.7
18.2
5.4
5.1
27.6
27.8
3.7
3.4
Stock Watch
December 28, 2017
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY18E FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
IT
Tech Mahindra
Neutral
503
-
49,153
30,545
32,988
15.0
15.0
35.2
37.6
14.3
13.4
2.4
2.3
16.8
16.2
1.4
1.2
Wipro
Neutral
305
-
148,604
54,164
56,544
22.3
22.3
18.8
19.5
16.2
15.7
2.6
2.2
15.0
13.6
2.0
1.7
Media
D B Corp
Neutral
346
-
6,374
2,404
2,625
30.5
31.5
23.7
26.9
14.6
12.9
3.4
2.9
23.5
22.8
2.5
2.3
HT Media
Neutral
98
-
2,276
2,589
2,830
15.1
15.4
8.3
10.9
11.8
9.0
1.0
0.9
8.4
10.4
0.4
0.3
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
176
225
5,467
2,541
2,835
28.5
28.7
12.7
14.1
13.8
12.5
2.9
2.5
21.3
21.4
2.0
1.7
Sun TV Network
Neutral
1,003
-
39,515
3,238
3,789
51.9
55.1
30.9
38.0
32.5
26.4
9.3
8.1
30.0
31.0
11.7
9.9
Hindustan Media
Neutral
249
-
1,826
1,002
1,074
23.3
23.5
29.2
33.8
8.5
7.4
1.3
1.1
15.6
15.4
0.8
0.6
Ventures
TV Today Network
Accumulate
440
500
2,627
667
727
27.7
27.7
18.6
20.1
23.7
22.0
3.7
3.8
15.6
17.3
3.5
3.2
Music Broadcast Limited Accumulate
385
434
2,197
271
317
91.0
109.0
6.0
10.0
64.2
38.5
4.0
3.6
6.5
9.3
7.7
6.3
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Neutral
263
-
162,976
82,301
91,235
17.0
18.0
17.1
20.5
15.4
12.8
2.9
2.7
45.0
55.0
1.7
1.5
Hind. Zinc
Neutral
304
-
128,386
22,108
24,555
57.0
58.0
22.1
26.3
13.8
11.6
4.5
3.6
32.0
35.0
4.8
4.0
Hindalco
Neutral
266
-
59,669
102,350
105,355
13.5
14.5
21.5
24.5
12.4
10.9
1.7
1.4
15.0
15.2
1.2
1.1
JSW Steel
Neutral
266
-
64,201
64,500
68,245
21.1
21.5
20.1
21.2
13.2
12.5
2.4
2.1
-
-
1.7
1.6
NMDC
Neutral
137
-
43,377
10,209
11,450
47.0
48.0
11.1
12.1
12.4
11.3
1.7
1.6
-
-
3.8
3.4
SAIL
Neutral
91
-
37,625
54,100
63,555
3.0
10.0
(10.0)
1.5
60.7
1.2
1.2
-
-
1.7
1.4
Vedanta
Neutral
326
-
121,255
81,206
87,345
28.0
29.0
26.5
33.5
12.3
9.7
2.8
2.4
-
-
2.2
1.9
Tata Steel
Neutral
722
-
70,102
121,445
126,500
16.2
17.2
65.4
81.3
11.0
8.9
1.8
1.5
-
-
1.1
1.0
Oil & Gas
GAIL
Neutral
508
-
85,944
53,115
52,344
14.2
15.3
30.0
31.1
16.9
16.3
2.1
2.0
-
-
1.3
1.3
ONGC
Neutral
193
-
247,104
83,111
84,934
44.2
44.9
16.4
16.9
11.7
11.4
1.4
1.3
-
-
2.8
2.8
Indian Oil Corp
Neutral
402
-
194,965
396,116
432,560
8.5
8.8
40.1
42.2
10.0
9.5
1.7
1.6
-
-
0.6
0.6
Reliance Industries
Neutral
922
-
599,846
257,711
267,438
17.0
18.2
89.1
89.5
10.4
10.3
1.0
0.9
-
-
2.0
1.9
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Accumulate
541
600
10,201
3,346
3,915
19.6
19.2
21.0
23.9
25.8
22.6
4.6
3.9
19.1
18.4
3.0
2.6
Alkem Laboratories Ltd
Accumulate
2,163
2,341
25,857
6,320
7,341
17.5
19.8
72.7
96.6
29.7
22.4
5.3
4.4
16.7
18.7
4.0
3.4
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
691
823
40,467
17,086
19,478
22.1
22.0
44.7
51.4
15.5
13.4
3.4
2.8
24.7
22.7
2.5
2.2
Aventis*
Neutral
4,710
-
10,848
2,411
2,698
18.8
18.8
151.6
163.9
31.1
28.7
4.8
3.9
25.4
27.5
4.1
3.4
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
430
-
44,067
11,365
12,926
20.0
20.0
18.4
20.5
23.4
21.0
5.2
4.3
24.3
22.2
4.0
3.4
Cipla
Sell
612
462
49,287
16,163
18,711
16.6
16.9
20.7
24.3
29.6
25.2
3.5
3.1
12.6
13.1
3.2
2.7
Dr Reddy's
Sell
2,401
2,040
39,806
13,734
15,548
17.7
20.2
69.9
102.0
34.3
23.5
3.1
2.8
9.2
12.4
3.1
2.7
GSK Pharma*
Sell
2,429
2,000
20,576
2,968
3,324
13.8
15.9
37.8
46.3
64.3
52.5
11.2
12.3
16.7
22.4
6.7
6.2
Stock Watch
December 28, 2017
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY18E FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
Pharmaceuticals
Indoco Remedies
Sell
284
136
2,613
1,114
1,297
9.9
13.9
5.6
11.4
50.6
24.9
3.8
3.4
7.7
14.5
2.6
2.2
Ipca labs
Neutral
607
-
7,662
3,256
3,647
14.1
17.1
16.2
25.4
37.5
23.9
2.9
2.6
8.0
11.5
2.4
2.2
Lupin
Buy
875
1,091
39,552
16,240
18,562
21.3
21.7
42.5
49.6
20.6
17.6
2.6
2.3
13.3
13.7
2.5
2.1
Natco Pharma
Accumulate
971
1,057
17,915
1,886
2,016
32.3
29.5
23.2
22.0
42.0
44.1
8.8
7.8
20.9
17.6
9.4
8.7
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
578
630
138,605
28,312
32,153
20.7
23.1
18.5
23.3
31.2
24.8
3.6
3.2
11.5
14.6
4.5
3.9
Syngene International
Accumulate
548
587
10,960
1,394
1,818
33.0
36.5
15.8
21.0
34.6
26.1
6.5
5.3
18.6
20.3
7.8
6.0
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
92
-
24,965
32,547
33,806
20.5
20.5
4.7
5.4
19.6
17.3
1.9
1.6
10.5
10.5
1.8
1.7
NTPC
Neutral
178
-
146,439
86,070
101,246
28.3
30.7
12.9
16.2
13.8
11.0
1.4
1.3
10.6
12.4
3.1
2.7
Power Grid
Accumulate
201
223
105,312
29,183
32,946
89.7
90.0
18.0
20.8
11.2
9.7
1.9
1.7
17.7
18.2
7.5
7.0
Real Estate
Prestige Estate
Neutral
322
-
12,068
4,607
5,146
21.0
22.2
7.9
9.8
40.7
32.8
2.5
2.3
10.3
12.0
3.8
3.4
MLIFE
Accumulate
467
522
2,399
487
590
12.3
17.8
21.0
31.2
22.3
15.0
1.2
1.1
5.2
7.4
3.6
3.0
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
534
-
213,461
97,903
105,233
36.0
36.3
9.3
11.1
57.4
48.3
2.8
2.6
5.0
5.6
3.1
2.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
101
-
36,489
35,012
37,689
27.1
27.7
(4.4)
(2.7)
1.6
1.6
(6.8)
(4.6)
2.4
2.1
Others
Abbott India
Neutral
5,423
-
11,524
3,244
3,723
14.9
16.1
167.5
209.4
32.4
25.9
7.1
6.0
23.7
24.8
3.2
2.7
Asian Granito
Accumulate
536
582
1,613
1,169
1,286
12.5
12.5
16.0
19.7
33.6
27.2
3.6
3.2
10.7
11.6
1.6
1.4
Bajaj Electricals
Neutral
486
-
4,951
4,646
5,301
6.7
7.6
16.1
22.3
30.2
21.8
4.9
4.2
16.4
19.2
1.1
0.9
Banco Products (India)
Neutral
259
-
1,852
1,530
1,695
13.2
12.7
19.0
20.0
13.6
13.0
2.2
1.9
0.2
0.2
1.1
125.4
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
279
-
5,751
3,494
3,913
17.4
18.0
4.8
5.7
-
49.0
2.5
2.4
-
0.1
2.1
1.9
Ltd
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
103
-
1,150
171
201
15.0
16.2
36.0
43.0
2.9
2.4
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
6.1
5.2
Garware Wall Ropes
Neutral
959
-
2,098
928
1,003
15.2
15.2
39.4
43.2
24.3
22.2
4.0
3.4
16.5
15.4
2.1
1.9
Goodyear India*
Neutral
991
-
2,285
1,717
1,866
11.8
12.3
47.9
49.8
20.7
19.9
3.2
2.8
15.6
15.7
1.1
147.3
Hitachi
Neutral
2,608
-
7,091
2,355
2,715
10.3
10.8
49.0
60.9
53.2
42.8
12.5
9.9
0.2
0.2
3.0
2.6
HSIL
Neutral
509
-
3,676
2,240
2,670
14.6
15.0
17.0
22.0
29.9
23.1
2.5
2.3
0.1
0.1
1.9
1.5
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
1,221
-
46,909
22,570
27,955
14.2
15.0
63.6
81.8
19.2
14.9
10.1
8.5
0.5
0.6
1.8
1.3
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
384
-
6,985
1,781
2,044
14.1
15.0
9.4
10.5
41.1
36.6
8.7
8.2
0.2
0.2
4.1
3.5
Linc Pen & Plastics
Neutral
337
-
499
420
462
9.3
9.3
15.3
17.1
22.1
19.7
3.7
3.9
16.9
19.5
1.2
1.1
M M Forgings
Neutral
1,170
-
1,412
542
642
20.1
21.0
41.6
56.8
28.1
20.6
3.9
3.3
0.1
0.2
3.0
2.6
Mirza International
Neutral
159
-
1,913
1,148
1,285
18.0
18.0
8.0
9.4
19.8
17.0
3.3
2.8
16.3
16.1
1.8
1.6
Navkar Corporation
Buy
190
265
2,858
561
617
41.5
41.5
11.5
12.7
16.5
14.9
1.7
1.6
10.5
10.4
5.8
5.0
Stock Watch
December 28, 2017
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E
FY18E FY19E
FY18E FY19E
FY18E FY19E
FY18E FY19E
Others
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,832
-
2,734
2,317
2,525
11.4
11.1
96.0
105.0
19.1
17.5
3.2
2.8
0.2
0.2
1.2
1.0
Parag Milk Foods
Neutral
293
-
2,462
1,987
2,379
7.6
9.0
12.4
18.3
23.6
16.0
3.3
2.9
8.2
13.2
1.4
1.1
Radico Khaitan
Neutral
284
-
3,785
1,811
1,992
13.2
13.2
8.1
8.8
35.1
32.3
3.5
3.9
10.1
12.0
2.4
2.2
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
673
-
8,097
1,981
2,310
13.7
14.5
12.0
15.5
56.1
43.4
10.9
8.8
0.2
0.2
4.2
3.6
Siyaram Silk Mills
Accumulate
758
813
3,554
1,769
1,981
12.7
12.7
22.6
26.2
33.5
28.9
5.2
4.5
15.5
15.5
2.2
1.9
Styrolution ABS India* Neutral
1,070
-
1,882
1,800
1,980
8.0
8.1
42.0
46.2
25.5
23.2
2.9
2.5
0.1
0.1
1.2
1.1
Surya Roshni
Neutral
387
-
1,697
4,870
5,320
7.7
7.8
22.8
28.1
17.0
13.8
2.3
2.0
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.5
TVS Srichakra
Neutral
3,738
-
2,862
2,729
2,893
12.7
12.5
248.5
265.0
15.0
14.1
4.3
3.5
0.3
0.3
1.1
1.0
Visaka Industries
Neutral
637
-
1,011
1,104
1,214
12.1
12.6
31.0
37.9
20.5
16.8
2.5
2.2
0.1
0.1
1.1
1.0
VIP Industries
Accumulate
349
400
4,929
1,450
1,693
10.4
10.5
6.5
7.8
53.3
44.7
11.3
9.9
21.1
22.1
3.4
2.9
Navin Fluorine
Neutral
826
-
4,074
945
1,154
17.5
17.9
28.7
34.8
28.8
23.8
4.8
4.1
-
-
3.8
3.0
Century Plyboards India Buy
339
400
7,536
2,007
2,510
22.4
22.6
8.4
11.1
40.4
30.6
8.6
7.0
21.3
22.9
4.1
3.3
LT Foods
Accumulate
90
96
2,407
3,287
3,747
11.1
11.5
4.4
5.2
20.5
17.4
3.0
2.5
17.5
17.6
1.2
1.1
Ruchira Papers
Buy
196
244
438
470
532
15.6
15.6
16.5
19.0
11.9
10.3
2.4
2.0
20.0
19.2
1.1
1.0
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on December 27, 2017
Market Outlook
December 28, 2017
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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